That big swing to the PAP: What they are saying at the Institute Of Policy Studies Post-election Conference

1. SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW Dr Gillian Koh (Survey of 2,015 voting age Singapore citizens for two weeks after the polls.)

Singaporeans aged 21 to 29, and those above 65 are among the voter groups who have shifted back to supporting the People’s Action Party (PAP). 

There was:
A dip in “pluralists” among the youngest group of voters (those who support greater political pluralism and changes in the electoral system, relative to other respondents). 
A spike in “conservatives” — who support the political status quo — within the oldest group.

Policy changes founded on “the ideal of Singapore as a continuous meritocracy” — such as SkillsFuture, the Fair Consideration Framework and dialing down of foreigner inflow — may have contributed to the shift among the voters in their 20s.

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2. National University of Singapore sociologist Tan Ern Ser (Survey of 3000)

Perceptions of government performance, governance, and the electoral system did not shift significantly before, during, and after the campaign.

People have already made up their minds (before the campaign) as to who they want to vote for. 

Dr Tan’s survey was conducted over three waves, including the two weeks before nomination day, the nine-day campaign period, and one week from Polling Day.

The top five issues that influenced votes most include cost of living, housing affordability, healthcare affordability, meeting retirement needs and government transparency and accountability.

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3. Associate Professor Eugene Tan

“In seeking to outflank the PAP, the Opposition ended up aggressively outflanking themselves. This drove conservative, middle-ground voters back into the arms of the tried-and-tested PAP.”

As a result, a potential “watershed”’ election turned out to be a “flight to safety”, Prof Tan said.

“The deep irony is that the electorate’s very receptivity to more political competition contributed to an Opposition blowback, resulting in a PAP blowout win. In short, the Opposition was blown away. No one expected this, not even the PAP.”

Prof Tan said that one of the mistakes the Opposition made was that it misread the electorate. “They attempted a time warp and sought to recreate the angst, anxiety and anger of GE 2011. But Lee Kuan Yew’s passing in March was still fresh and had a sobering effect on voters."

The election was won by the PAP not during the hustings, but with the work done between May 2011 and April 2015.

In conclusion, he said that “Singaporeans were arguably the biggest winners of GE2015”.

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