Sunday, 10 December 2017

The Singapore Population Swing: 2018 is turning point






Singaporeans “cannot have the cake and eat it too”. They have to make the choice – they either pay higher taxes if they want a smaller pool of immigrants or pay lower taxes and open the doors to immigrants, says UOB economist Francis Tan.

Singapore will cross the demographic Rubicon next year, when the share of the population who are 65 and over will match that of those under 15 for the first time.

By 2030, it is estimated that the percentage of people younger than 15 will fall to only 11% while that of those above 65 will reach 27% of the resident population.

That will put us in the similar situation as Japan today.

The implications are many.

Will we need more adult diapers than children diapers, more nursing homes than childcare centres, more geriatricians than paediatricians?

Economists interviewed said that unless the Republic loosens its grip on immigration, taxes would have to be raised in the near future as a result of the rapidly greying population.

The size of Singapore’s workforce will shrink resulting in lower contributions to the nation’s coffers from economically-active individuals while expenditure will go up from rising healthcare costs.

Maybank economist Chua Hak Bin argued that loosening the immigration policy is necessary to cushion the adverse effects of a greying population. “Raising the intake of working-age foreigners will help shore up growth and fiscal revenue, and reduce the tax burden on younger Singaporeans,” said Dr Chua.

In May, Defence Minister Dr Ng Eng Hen said that the pool of full-time national servicemen is expected to shrink by one-third in 2030. To overcome manpower constraints, the SAF has relied on technology and other initiatives such as the recently-launched Centre of Excellence for Soldier Performance, which was set up to redesign fitness training to enhance the potential of every soldier.

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